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How Bayes’ Rule Can Make You A Better Thinker
"Bayes’s Rule is a theorem in probability theory that answers the question, When you encounter new information, how much should it change your confidence in a belief? It’s essentially about making decisions under uncertainty, and how we should update or revise our theories as new evidence emerges. It can also be used to help us reach decisions in those circumstances when very few observations or pieces of evidence are available. And it can also be used to help us avoid common mistakes..."